2006-

Reproducibility: A scientist plans and executes an experiment. A clinical trials physician runs a clinical trial assigning patients to treatments at random and blinding who has what treatment. A survey sampling person collects a survey. Scientists use statistical methods to help them judge if something has happened beyond chance. They expect that if others replicate their work, that a similar finding will happen. To clear a drug the FDA requires two studies, each significant at 0.05. A recent paper by Ioannidis (JAMA 2005; 294:218-228) suggested startling and disconcerting lack of reproducibility of influential statistical studies published in major medical journals. It found that about 30% of randomized, double blinded medical trials failed to replicate and that 5 out of 6 non-randomized studies failed to replicate - about an 80% failure rate. We aim to explore these findings and if reasonable, clarify some of the causes of failures to reproduce in more detail, not only in the Ioannidis paper, but also more broadly, identifying commonalities that lead to these problems, and attempting to estimate their prevalences. Our current group projects include a careful consideration of the definitions of "reproducibility" that exist and are used, as well as recommendations for scientific reporting.

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